Stocks / TSLA
TSLA stock forecast
TESLA INC · Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers
The model's rating
Underperform
TSLA is rated Underperform as of September 29, 2026: its medium-term return forecast is below the middle of the stocks the model scores, but above the bottom fifth.
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TSLA is not among the 20 largest holdings published for 2026 Q4. See the portfolio
TSLA against the S&P 500
| Period | TSLA | S&P 500 (SPY) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 month | -3.6% | -0.3% |
| 3 months | -16.6% | +2.5% |
| Year to date | -21.1% | +12.7% |
| 1 year | -20.2% | +15.7% |
Total return, dividends included.
Key numbers
| Price | $354.81 |
| Market cap | 1.4 Trillion |
| P/E (trailing 12 months) | 300.7 |
| P/S (trailing 12 months) | 13.5 |
| P/B (latest quarter) | 14.5 |
| Gross margin | 18.9% |
| Net profit margin | 3.7% |
| Return on equity | 4.6% |
| Beta | 2.2 |
As of July 23, 2026.
TSLA and its closest peers
| Stock | Company | Market cap | Model rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD | HOME DEPOT INC | 283.83 Billion | Outperform | TSLA vs HD |
| MCD | MCDONALDS CORP | 163.42 Billion | Underperform | TSLA vs MCD |
| TJX | TJX COMPANIES INC | 145.54 Billion | Underperform | TSLA vs TJX |
| AMZN | AMAZON COM INC | 2.69 Trillion | Greatly Outperform | AMZN vs TSLA |
| SBUX | STARBUCKS CORP | 107.11 Billion | Underperform | |
| LOW | LOWES COMPANIES INC | 103.4 Billion | Outperform |
Questions
What does the Upfront Investment model say about TSLA?
The model rates TESLA INC (TSLA) "Underperform" as of September 29, 2026, which means its medium-term return forecast is below the middle of the stocks the model scores, but above the bottom fifth. The rating is a statistical forecast, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
How is the TSLA rating produced?
A machine-learning model forecasts each stock's return over the coming months and ranks the forecasts against each other. The label says where this stock's forecast falls in that ranking. It is refreshed whenever the model's data updates, normally every trading day.
Is TSLA in the Upfront Investment model portfolio?
TSLA is not among the 20 largest holdings published for 2026 Q4.
The rating is the output of a statistical model and can be wrong. It is not investment advice and takes no account of your circumstances. Past performance does not guarantee future results.