Methodology

How the numbers on this site are produced, and which of them you can check.

Two records, kept apart

Model history. The long chart on the home page is the model run over past market data. It is recalculated whenever the model is updated, so it shows what today's model would have held, not what anyone was told at the time. Treat it as a description of the strategy.

On the record. Since September 18, 2026, the day's Upfront Picks and the model's full book are frozen every trading day, fingerprinted, and added to a public ledger that cannot be edited afterwards. Only this part shows decisions made before their outcomes were known.

What the model holds

  • The portfolio is six overlapping books. Each book is 20 stocks chosen for a multi-month holding period, and each gets an equal share of capital.
  • What the site shows as Upfront Picks is the net of those books: one weight per stock, largest first. The net book usually has more than 20 names; the 20 largest are listed.
  • The books start on different dates, so holdings and weights change within a quarter, not only at its start.

How returns are measured

  • Prices are daily closes adjusted for splits and dividends, so every return is a total return.
  • The benchmark is SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, measured the same way. Its dividends are included.
  • Cumulative figures compound daily returns. A calendar year counts as a win when the model's return for that year is higher than SPY's; the current year is counted to date.
  • Results are for a model portfolio, not a managed account. Fees and taxes are left out.

How the on-the-record return is measured

  • It uses only the frozen books and market closes, never the model's own return series.
  • Each trading day earns the weights of the newest book dated before that day, so a book gets no credit for a move that had already happened when it was frozen.
  • Any part of a book that is not invested earns nothing. A holding with no price on a day contributes nothing that day.

How to verify a book

  1. Note an entry's SHA-256 fingerprint from the ledger on the day it appears. A screenshot or an archive.org capture will do.
  2. Holdings open 30 days later (the current book is a Premium feature). The entry page then shows the exact text that was fingerprinted.
  3. Compute SHA-256 over the previous entry's fingerprint, a newline, and that text. It must equal the fingerprint you noted. The full ledger is at /api/model/ledger.

Model results are not a managed account and leave out fees and taxes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is investment advice.