Stocks / MPC
MPC stock forecast
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
The model's rating
Greatly Outperform
MPC is rated Greatly Outperform as of September 29, 2026: its medium-term return forecast is in the top fifth of the stocks the model scores.
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In the model portfolio. MPC is holding #18 for 2026 Q3, at 2.2% of the book. See the portfolio
MPC against the S&P 500
| Period | MPC | S&P 500 (SPY) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +5.9% | -0.3% |
| 3 months | +49.7% | +2.5% |
| Year to date | +146.0% | +12.7% |
| 1 year | +108.6% | +15.7% |
Total return, dividends included.
Key numbers
| Price | $392.03 |
| Market cap | 110.09 Billion |
| P/E (trailing 12 months) | 13.5 |
| P/S (trailing 12 months) | 0.7 |
| P/B (latest quarter) | 4.6 |
| Gross margin | 14.0% |
| Net profit margin | 5.5% |
| Return on equity | 48.7% |
| Beta | -0.1 |
As of August 4, 2026.
MPC and its closest peers
| Stock | Company | Market cap | Model rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | VALERO ENERGY CORP | 111.64 Billion | Greatly Outperform | VLO vs MPC |
| PSX | PHILLIPS 66 | 100.65 Billion | Greatly Outperform | MPC vs PSX |
| WMB | WILLIAMS COMPANIES INC | 83.95 Billion | Underperform | MPC vs WMB |
| SLB | SLB LIMITED | 74.01 Billion | Outperform | |
| EOG | EOG RESOURCES INC | 73.26 Billion | Outperform | |
| COP | CONOCOPHILLIPS | 150.7 Billion | Greatly Outperform |
Questions
What does the Upfront Investment model say about MPC?
The model rates MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) "Greatly Outperform" as of September 29, 2026, which means its medium-term return forecast is in the top fifth of the stocks the model scores. The rating is a statistical forecast, not a recommendation to buy or sell.
How is the MPC rating produced?
A machine-learning model forecasts each stock's return over the coming months and ranks the forecasts against each other. The label says where this stock's forecast falls in that ranking. It is refreshed whenever the model's data updates, normally every trading day.
Is MPC in the Upfront Investment model portfolio?
Yes. MPC is holding number 18 in the 2026 Q3 model portfolio, at 2.2% of the book.
The rating is the output of a statistical model and can be wrong. It is not investment advice and takes no account of your circumstances. Past performance does not guarantee future results.